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vivekm1309
07-23 01:48 PM
I agree, I read all the posts and went through some figures myself, the indication is that dates for EB2 will move much faster that we had all anticipated in the past. I do somewhere agree with my friend vldrao that dates could retrogress for a small period of time (say 1 month), but eventually dates will become current soon.


Thanks:)
vdlrao is everyone's friend these days ...not only urs ... :-)
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dilber
07-16 03:37 AM
Some one has done a very good analysis in this thread.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=4285&page=107

Here is copy and paste of the post by gcobessesed

----------------------------------

Reading this post and the Ron Gotcher numbers, I see some answers for the pending India backlog number question and a silver lining for EB2.

Quote:
Originally Posted by drirshad View Post
(Quoting Ron Gotcher) The CIS backlog does not appear to be as serious as I had been told previously. Rather than 600,000 pending employment based AOS cases, it is likely less than 400,000 pending cases.
Quote:
Indian applicants make up approximately 40 to 45 per cent of the entire employment based quota backlog
Therefore, about 160,000 applications are pending for India!

As we have seen before, EB3 and EB2 are almost the same proportion for India with EB3 being slightly higher. So, about 85,000 for EB3 and 75,000 for EB2 are pending.


I am very confident that EB-2 india will become current in about 14-18 months.

I disagree with the underlined part before the visa numbers started to move fast in June and The July bulletin EB2 was at Jan 03 and then at Apr 04 but EB3 was at May 01 and then at June 2003 so there will me more like 60~65 percent of Eb3 filers so for calculating EB2 movements we should take this into account as well. So if USCIS does end up giving all the spillover numbers to the retro cuntries in EB2 then I have to agree with Vdlrao's analysis that there will not be much retro in India in the next FY and by the end of next FY it might even become close to current.
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whitecollarslave
09-23 02:54 PM
Yes, mine was approved a month back without any hassles and bought the home ....

If you don't mind sharing who was the lender?
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gc_chahiye
06-28 05:08 PM
Still, just because DOS told USCIS "Visas are exhausted" doesnt mean they should stop ACCEPTING new petitions. They can stop APPROVING new ones, but why stop ACCEPTING new petitions. Visa bulletins guide the filing as well as approval of petitions. If visa bulletins is current, then they can both accept and approve petitions.

right, and the worry (as is also noted in the AILA complaint that someone posted earlier) is that USCIS can consider the update from DOS to be the 'updated' Visa Bulletin.

There is nothing that prevents DOS from issuing a visa bulletin at any time and making it effective then-and-there. AILA has raised concerns with this, that it is a problematic thing to do, but it seems to be well within the law. I dont think there is a chance of a lawsuit here.
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07-03 06:41 PM
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sledge_hammer
05-29 11:30 AM
Yes it will, unless there are more EB1I visas which could spill over to EB2I, in which case EB2I will move ahead of EB3I. But that guy has also said that the spill over may not happen because of the demand for EB1I.

Its just unbelievable that EB2I and EB3I (i.e. the persons who have PD when the numbers were calculated) will have to wait for about 19 years to get their GCs. We HAVE to do something about this.

60K EB2-I and 60K EB3-I pending so far. Does this mean Eb2 and EB3 dates will move together from now on for India?
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nrk
09-15 04:42 PM
By seeing numbers, i am seeing a ray of hope with in one year i should hear some good news. Thanks for the R&D of all IV members


Here are my Estimate of pending EB2 India case for give years

<=2004 2000
2005 10000
2006 13000
2007(july) 5000
==============
Total 30000
==============

This number is very close to Ron Gocthers number prediction a few months back (minus sept approvals).

Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis - Page 6 - Immigration Information Discussion Forum (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-immigration-questions/8419-collaboration-on-visa-quota-data-analysis-6.html)

Pending as of 15 July 2009 145000
EB2 50000
EB3 94000
EB2India (2.4/3.5 EB2) 35714

We can use the LCA number and come close these numbers as well

2005
EB2 India LCA for 2005 = RIR (3000) + PERM (60% of 7290) ~ 7400
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 5900
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 13000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 5% cross-charageability we get => pending 10000 pending I-485 application for 2005

2006
India PERM applications = 18000
EB2 India PERM applications (60%) = 10800
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 8640
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 19000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 10% cross-charageability we get => pending 13000 pending I-485 application for 2006

So if we see spillover of more than 30K the date will move beyond July 2007.
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gimmeacard
08-02 01:07 AM
Any ways, it is not going to stop me from having fun here. Any body with more interested stories to keep people informed and entertained till they get gc. Too much predicting would kill the mood. To be motivated u need some fun too.


so i got tricked this time, in checkout lane met some guy with his kid, started chatting casual nuthing on those bombay guy or other stuff which amway uses, finally he stated that he knows of some folks that have their business here in fremont,ca he is planning to see how they operate, i assumed business means some store related or so, since he didnt seem like an IT guy .

next day get a call, i ask him if its quickster, n he says u heard of it...why wife started laughing @ me, saying u got tricked this time, normally i wud recognise these guys in 1look
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vdlrao
07-21 11:43 PM
vdlrao, Thanks for the great analysis.
I am using DOS visa statistics and I arrived at EB quota numbers for 2008 as 162,707. There were 22,707 unused FB visa's in 2007 based on the DOS visa statistics @ http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/statistics/statistics_1476.html
Typically the actual EB quota for the FY is revised in the September bulletin. I am not sure if DOS has already taken into account the new EB quota number for the Aug bulletin. If they hadn't taken into account the new quota number then we should see some forward movement in the Sep bulletin.

However the 28,795 AC-21 recaptured visa's U are talking about has already been used in 2002, please take a look at the below mentioned link for details regarding the usage of those visa's.

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2003%20AppD.pdf

All the AC-21 recaptured visa's has been used by now.

mpadapa, I am getting 31,100 unused Family Based Visas for 2007 fiscal year from
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/LPR_FR_2007.pdf
.
DHS bulletin is not updated correctly like Employment Based AC21 VISAS? Please let me know.
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ita
03-31 07:00 PM
Even Muslims in Gujarat have started realizing congress is good for nothing.Congress just makes promises that it never keeps up.Uses opportunistic politics.well of course you create opportunities that are helpful to people which will bring prosperity along with awareness.Increased awareness among masses means end to dynastic rule.So why keep up promises and shoot your self right?

On the other hand Modi who doesn't even need Muslim votes in Gujarat has worked for overall development. In terms of this Imam from Gujarat;
'Seeing him work for two or three years after the riots, Muslims too felt they had an opportunity to prosper in the peaceful environment that Modi government was creating. He has provided an atmosphere which is conducive for those who want to trade peacefully in Gujarat. Therefore, intelligent Muslims supported BJP during 2007 Assembly polls'

Apparently there this group called ,'Tablighis ' who have foreign funding ( which was of course was checked by Modi govt) working towards keeping the hatred alive.It's anybody's guess who benefits from such hatred apart from congress party.

This guy also says:
'But let me tell you, projection of 2002 riots was much more grave than the situation actually was. '


I agree with you that though a guy has a great leadership skills, commanding speech, great administartive and management skills, if he committed/aided the crime, he has no right to hold the office

But you know congress party that orchestrated sikh riots went to form govt ,Rajiv Gandhi speaking about sikh riots said 'When a banyan tree falls earth will shake' then he went to be country's PM indulging in all kinds of scams.Now his wife,children are holding offices.Congress party guys directly involved in the attacks also keep getting party tickets.That OK?

Agree hard work,entrepreneurship and other such qualities are in gujaratis's blood.Intersting how until Modi that time of prosperity never came.

Most of Telugu people are in I.T , but time for Hyd to get onto International map didn't come until CBN.Again during the current Congress regime in Hyd that time kind of took back step.

Name of that time is good governance.

Well said. It is similar to Bill Clinton takes credit for revolution in IT area. It is all time. Gujarat prospered becuse of successful bussiness minded people. Growth was aided by high demand for export. I agree with you that though a guy has a great leadership skills, commanding speech, great administartive and management skills, if he commited/aided the crime, he has no right to hold the office. See the Alska Senator..He was one of the most successful politician and elected many times from alska for Senate. Now he is in jail at his very old age, just becuse he got money from oil comapines to renovate his house.
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needhelp!
09-29 10:34 AM
Who sent the emails today?
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wandmaker
07-22 02:16 PM
See, we need to understand, life is a Lottery. No place for Logic. USCIS LOVES lottery...after diversity visa lottery, they are also doing LOTTERY for H1 now, and one day if they like the idea of doing LOTTERY, for EB cases, they might throw away this all mambo jambo of EB1,2,3/PD/RD/ROW/IN/CH...and JUST DO THE LOTTERY!! After this post, I will go buy a Californial Lotto...;)

:D
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gc_check
07-04 12:56 PM
I just want to point out that whether or not your company helps offset these costs is immaterial at this point. This is money that has gone down the drain. Depending on the Oct. Visa Bulletin, you, or your employer may have to incur the same expenses all over again. So in the end, you may end up spending more than twice the amount of money, and more in application fees.

>> This is money that has gone down the drain.
None of the FEES has been accepted by USCIS as they even did not accept the petition. So the fees cannot be calculated. Need to find out, what they will do for July 2nd filers

>>So in the end, you may end up spending more than twice the amount of money, and more in application fees.
Yes, the fees gets revised start July 30. But you need NOT pay again and again to extend EAD/AP, if requried under new fees. Need to calculate the difference. Also not sure if the Attorney's would charge twice as they have to resubmit the paper with little or no modification.

Money lost will be the amount spent on Medical Examination (In my case $550, as I ended up with a doctor of my choice out side my medical insurance network), So even if my conpany can reimburse, I cannot request... Also per my attorney Medical Examination Reports are valid for a year, If we apply within a year, this is also not lost. If someone or his family has to rush back to USA, to file AOS, then the amount spent are waste. Loss of vacation and money.

My point is not to discourage any one, but when we wirte to media, they will investigate all before they publish to main stream. We need to be fair and should provide the correct information, else we might loose the coverage. We need to highlight the expenses occured and stress this has caused to many many people.
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vdlrao
07-23 04:52 PM
I felt very bad and compleately moved when I was read about Mehul at that time. He was not able to get the GC in time just because he was born in India, even though he is from Fiji. During the last days of his life he was more worried about his family settlement, than his death, and moved them to sweeden. I hope this kind of sitution wont repeat to any immigrant.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=15611


For things like this not to repeat, we need a legilation change so that it doesnt matter which country you are from and which EB category you are in, and make sure that there wont be years long back logs.
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grupak
12-13 12:04 PM
--I think, per country quota system was framed with diversification as underlying principle, not discrimination.

Depending on which country you are from, it may seem like discrimination or fair system upholding diversity.

If you are from India, you would hate it. There are truckloads of programmers in that country. But if you are the only graduate with programming skills from a country like timbaktoo (?), you would love it. You also got a shot at american dream.

This EB quota system reminds me of Caste reservation system in India. To some that is fair, to others, it is unfair. Depends on which side of the fence you are.

Fairness or not is not the issue. Question is can it be challenged in a court? Diversity at work place is encouraged through outreach for example. But you cannot discriminate in employment based on national origin. Employers can't put quotas for employee diversity. Employment based immigration I don't think can count because part of the requirement for holding the job is that the employee have a valid work authorization.

For example, someones H1b 6yrs runs out the without possibility of extension, you cannot cry discrimination from the employer for not hiring you beyond 6yrs. As I said, the employers don't force you to not change job or job title. People don't because they will lose their GC or spot in the GC queue.

As an unrelated side note, the current quota system is something that has evolved from past policies some of which was used to restrict citizens of certain countries.
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chintu25
02-12 09:47 PM
i see people making assumptions based on ROW..... Please explain how ROW dates affect India/China Dates ??
:confused:
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americandesi
08-15 01:50 PM
I am surprised that this is even a headline news in TOI. SRK detained at US airport for 2 hours. So what? Big deal. TSA didn't ask him to sing or dance, but just questioned him on the purpose of his visit, which is part of their job.

US has got every right to protect her homeland and no one has got any right to question their procedures when it comes to national security. Because of such stronger measures there hasn't been a single terrorist incident in US since 09/11. The least we could do is to learn from them and implement such stronger measures in India, which by the way has become a playground for terrorists and anti social elements.
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satyasaich
01-14 09:56 AM
My take is BODY SHOPPING is killed.
H1Bs can work at direct employer or as an employee of direct vendor at off site.

No more small consulting firms sending resumes to direct vendors. May be in long term its good for H1Bs.

Mostly Desi consulting firms will get hit. Outsourcing companies like TCS,Infosys are direct vendors to big clients. They will OK ..

Not just desi consulting co's who makes money just by passing on resumes with a status of 'preferred vendor' / 'partner' etc; but also just look what the big names like Tek systems, Kforce, MOdisIT etc are doing ? they also should be brought to justice in this shameless game of layering / commission based on business . just do not blame only desi co's
needless to say worst business practices of big 5 from india and i'm not supporting them in any manner, but my point is these american blood sucking layers also should be gone.
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snathan
03-29 08:35 PM
Thank you for your personal opinion. India was doing well when Vajpayee was PM. He is not some management honcho. It is a vision of the person that is more important. Manmohan is a learned man and has provided country with real good service but real power rests with Sonia and her son Rahul.

Hence. Its a question of ideology in the long run and given my background, BJP govt suits me better than Congress. So I prefer Advani over Sonia.

I am not sure what vision Mr.Advani has for India. May be at this age he might have better vision than other people in the same league.
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santa123
07-21 07:43 PM
Best case and worst case


vdlrao,
You have always brought some statistics onto this forum and many of us have felt that your numbers have some logic. I want to know what your confidence level is on those stats, may be you feel on the inside that this is theory and God only knows wht will happen. Since the processes that USCIS & DOL follow is not very clear to anyone, I am curious.

Just as you know:
Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. ~Aaron Levenstein
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pappu
06-26 01:34 PM
Yeah well. I also heard the rumour that in the next month july bulletin USCIS is going to move the dates forward from Current to Current+2 months = September 2007. This will allow everyone to get greencards in advance and then after they get their greencards they can apply for Labor, I140 and whatever.... :)

Please stop spreading rumours.
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